Dataset
Chapter 10 of the Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report - data for Figure 10.19 (v20220622)
Abstract
Data for Figure 10.19 from Chapter 10 of the Working Group I (WGI) Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6).
Figure 10.19 shows changes in the Indian summer monsoon in the historical and future periods.
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How to cite this dataset
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When citing this dataset, please include both the data citation below (under 'Citable as') and the following citation for the report component from which the figure originates:
Doblas-Reyes, F.J., A.A. Sörensson, M. Almazroui, A. Dosio, W.J. Gutowski, R. Haarsma, R. Hamdi, B. Hewitson, W.-T. Kwon, B.L. Lamptey, D. Maraun, T.S. Stephenson, I. Takayabu, L. Terray, A. Turner, and Z. Zuo, 2021: Linking Global to Regional Climate Change. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1363–1512, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.012.
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Figure subpanels
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The figure has 6 subpanels. Data for all subpanels is provided.
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List of data provided
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The dataset contains:
APHRODITE station density for June-September (JJAS) 1956
Precipitation June-September (JJAS):
- Model mean bias 1985-2010
- Observed and modelled trends: CRU TS 1950-2000, CMIP6 hist-GHG & hist-aer 1950-2000, and CMIP6 SSP5-8.5 2015-2100 trends
- Observed and model relative anomalies over 1950-2100 with respect to 1995-2014 averages over central India (lon: 76°E-87°E, lat: 20°N-28°N)
- Modelled change until 2081‒2100 with respect to 1995-2014 averages over central India (lon: 76°E-87°E, lat: 20°N-28°N)
- Trends in relative precipitation anomalies (baseline 1995-2014) over past (1950-2000) and future (2015-2100) period over central India (lon: 76°E-87°E, lat: 20°N-28°N).
- Trend difference between the 3 MPI-ESM runs with the lowest and the 3 MPI-ESM runs with the highest trend
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Data provided in relation to figure
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Panel (a):
APHRODITE station density for JJAS 1956:
- Data file:
Fig_10_19_panel-a_mapplot_APHRODITE_stationdensity_single_mean.nc
Panel (b):
CMIP6 mean precipitation bias June-September mean 1985-2010 mean with respect to CRU TS:
- Data file:
Fig_10_19_panel-b_mapplot_pr_cmip6_bias_pr_cmip6_maps_past_bias_MultiModelMean_bias.nc
Panel (c):
OLS linear precipitation for June-September mean trend of CRU TS 1950-2000 (top left), CMIP6 hist-GHG (bottom left) & hist-aer (bottom right) 1950-2000, and CMIP6 SSP5-8.5 2015-2100 (top right):
- Data files:
Fig_10_19_panel-c_mapplot_pr_cmip6_mean_trend_future_pr_cmip6_maps_trend_future_MultiModelMean_trend.nc,
Fig_10_19_panel-c_mapplot_pr_histaer_mean_trend_past_pr_aer_maps_trend_past_MultiModelMean_trend.nc,
Fig_10_19_panel-c_mapplot_pr_histghg_mean_trend_past_pr_ghg_maps_trend_past_MultiModelMean_trend.nc,
Fig_10_19_panel-c_mapplot_pr_obs_mean_trend_past_CRU_single_trend.nc;
Panel (d):
Observed and model relative precipitation June-September mean anomalies over 1950-2100 in respect to 1995-2014 averages over central India (lon: 76°E-87°E, lat: 20°N-28°N) (CRU TS (brown), GPCC (dark blue), REGEN (green), APHRO-MA (light brown), IITM all-India rainfall (light blue), CMIP6 hist all-forcings sample corresponding to DAMIP experiments (pink), CMIP6 hist-aer (grey), hist-GHG (light blue) CMIP6 historical/SSP5-8.5 (dark red) and CMIP5 historical/RCP8.5 (dark blue) and Modelled change until 2081‒2100 in respect to 1995-2014 averages over central India (CMIP6 SSP5-8.5 (dark red) and CMIP5 historical/RCP8.5 (dark blue)):
- Data files:
Fig_10_19_panel-d_timeseries.csv,
Fig_10_19_panel-d_boxplot.csv
Panel (e):
OLS linear trends in relative precipitation June-September mean anomalies (baseline 1995-2014) over past (1950-2000) and future (2015-2100) period over central India (lon: 76°E-87°E, lat: 20°N-28°N) of observations (GPCC, CRU TS, REGEN and APRHO-MA: black crosses) and models (individual members of CMIP5 historical-RCP8.5 (blue), CMIP6 historical-SSP5-8.5 (dark red), CMIP6 hist all-forcings sample corresponding to DAMIP experiments (pink circles), CMIP6 hist-GHG (blue triangles), CMIP6 hist-aer (grey triangles)), and box-and-whisker plots for the SMILEs: MIROC6, CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, MPI-ESM, d4PDF (grey shading):
- Data file:
Fig_10_19_panel-e_trends.csv
Panel (f):
June-September mean 2016-2045 OLS linear trend difference in precipitation between the 3 MPI-ESM runs with the lowest and the 3 MPI-ESM runs with the highest trend:
- Data file:
Fig_10_19_panel-f_mapplot_pr_mpige_mean_trend_future_spread_single_trend-difference-min3-max3.nc
Acronyms:
CMIP - Coupled Model Intercomparison Project,
APHRODITE - ASIAN PRECIPITATION - HIGHLY-RESOLVED OBSERVATIONAL DATA INTEGRATION TOWARDS EVALUATION OF WATER RESOURCES,
CRU TS- Climatic Research Unit Time Series,
GHG - Greenhouse gas,
IITM - Indian Institute of Technology Madras,
RCP - Representative Concentration Pathway,
DAIMP - Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project,
SSP - Shared Socioeconomic Pathways,
GPCC - GLOBAL PRECIPITATION CLIMATOLOGY CENTRE,
REGEN - Rainfall Estimates on a Gridded Network, S
MILEs -single model initial-condition large ensembles,
d4PDF - Database for Policy Decision-Making for Future Climate Change,
MIROC - Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate,
MPI - Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie,
ESM - Earth System Model,
Cordex – Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment,
OLS - ordinary least squares regression.
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Notes on reproducing the figure from the provided data
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The code for ESMValTool is provided.
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Sources of additional information
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The following weblinks are provided in the Related Documents section of this catalogue record:
- Link to the figure on the IPCC AR6 website
- Link to the report component containing the figure (Chapter 10)
- Link to the Supplementary Material for Chapter 10, which contains details on the input data used in Table 10.SM.11
- Link to the code for the figure, archived on Zenodo.
Details
| Previous Info: |
No news update for this record
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| Previously used record identifiers: |
No related previous identifiers.
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| Access rules: |
Public data: access to these data is available to both registered and non-registered users.
Use of these data is covered by the following licence: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. When using these data you must cite them correctly using the citation given on the CEDA Data Catalogue record. |
| Data lineage: |
Data produced by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) authors and supplied for archiving at the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) by the Technical Support Unit (TSU) for IPCC Working Group I (WGI). |
| Data Quality: |
Data as provided by the IPCC
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| File Format: |
txt, netCDF, csv
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Related Documents
Process overview
| Title | Caption for Figure 10.19 from Chapter 10 of the Working Group I (WGI) Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) |
| Abstract | Changes in the Indian summer monsoon in the historical and future periods. (a) Observational uncertainty demonstrated by a snapshot of rain-gauge density (% of 0.05° subgrid boxes containing at least one gauge) in the APHRO-MA 0.5° daily precipitation dataset for June to September 1956. (b) Multi-model ensemble (MME) mean bias of 34 CMIP6 models for June to September precipitation (mm day–1) compared to CRU TS observations for the 1985‒2010 period. (c) Maps of rainfall trends (mm day–1 per decade) in CRU TS observations (1950‒2000), the CMIP6 MME-mean of SSP5-8.5 future projections for 2015‒2100 (34 models), the CMIP6 hist-GHG and hist-aer runs, both measured over 1950 to 2000. (d) Low-pass filtered time series of June to September precipitation anomalies (%, relative to 1995‒2014 baseline) averaged over the central India box shown in panel (b). The averaging region (20°N‒28°N, 76°E‒87°E) follows other works (Bollasina et al., 2011; Jin and Wang, 2017; Huang et al., 2020b). Time series are shown for CRU TS (brown), GPCC (dark blue), REGEN (green), APHRO-MA (light brown) observational estimates and the IITM all-India rainfall product (light blue) in comparison with the CMIP6 mean of 13 models for the all-forcings historical (pink) the aerosol-only (hist-aer, grey) and greenhouse gas-only (hist-GHG, blue). Dark red and blue lines show low-pass filtered MME-mean change in the CMIP6 historical/SSP5-8.5 (34 models) and CMIP5 historical/RCP8.5 (41 models) experiments for future projections to 2100. The filter is the same as that used in Figure 10.11 (d). To the right, box-and-whisker plots show the 2081‒2100 change averaged over the CMIP5 (blue) and CMIP6 (dark red) ensembles. Note that some models exceed the plotting range (CMIP5: GISS-E2-R-CC, GISS-E2-R, IPSL-CM5B-LRl and CMIP6: CanESM5-CanOE, CanESM5 and GISS-E2-1-G). (e) Precipitation linear trend (% per decade) over Central India for historical 1950‒2000 (left) and future 2015‒2100 (right) periods in Indian Monsoon rainfall in observed estimates (black crosses), the CMIP5 historical-RCP8.5 simulations (blue), the CMIP6 ensemble (dark red) for historical all-forcings experiment and SSP5-8.5 future projection, the CMIP6 hist-GHG (light blue triangles), hist-aer (grey triangles) and historical all-forcings (same sample as for hist-aer and hist-GHG, pink circles). Ensemble means are also shown. Box-and-whisker plots show the trend distribution of the three coupled and the d4PDF atmosphere-only (for past period only) SMILEs used throughout Chapter 10 and follow the methodology used in Figure 10.6. (f) Example spread of trends (mm day–1 per decade) for the period 2016‒2045 in RCP8.5 SMILE experiments of the MPI-ESM model, showing the difference between the three driest and three wettest trends among ensemble members over central India. All trends are estimated using ordinary least-squares regression. Further details on data sources and processing are available in the chapter data table (Table 10.SM.11). |
| Input Description | None |
| Output Description | None |
| Software Reference | None |
- var_id: pr
- standard_name: precipitation_flux
- long_name: Precipitation
- units: kg m-2 day-1
- var_id: lat_bnds
- var_id: latitude_longitude
- var_id: lon_bnds
- var_id: time_bnds
- units: 1
- long_name: year
- var_id: year
- var_id: year_bnds
Co-ordinate Variables
- units: degrees_north
- standard_name: latitude
- long_name: latitude
- var_id: lat
- units: degrees_east
- standard_name: longitude
- long_name: longitude
- var_id: lon
- long_name: time
- standard_name: time
- var_id: time
- units: days
Temporal Range
1950-01-01T12:00:00
2100-12-31T12:00:00
Geographic Extent
35.0000° |
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60.0000° |
100.0000° |
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-5.0000° |